Neither billionaire Patrice Motsepe nor former president Thabo Mbeki can save the ANC from its downward spiral, experts say.
It will take a major shake-up and bottom-up cleansing to address the deep rot in the party, they add.
Reacting to moves by some within the ANC to canvass support for Motsepe to become the next ANC president, and earlier reports claiming Mbeki could be asked to take over to restore the ANC to acceptance, analysts say it’s mission impossible.
They maintain the problem is not who the president is, because the rot in the party goes deeper than that.
The experts say corruption and failure to deliver on the people’s needs has put the ANC on the back foot.
‘Bottom-up cleansing’
It had also badly tarnished its reputation as a party in power and a liberation movement – and no leader can change that in the foreseeable future.
“The ANC can only be saved by bottom-up cleansing within its ranks,” said independent researcher Dominic Maphaka.
“The rot is too deep to be addressed by one individual without comprehensive cleansing at the lower ranks, such as in municipalities that are distant from the president.
“As the president, Motsepe would just be the face of a problematic system perpetuated within the ANC.”
Motsepe’s appeal to voters questioned
Maphaka said voters were aware the ANC could not bring about any change irrespective of the calibre of its leadership, “for as long as the structures adjacent to them are engulfed by incompetence and corruption, etc”.
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“At a personal level, Motsepe cannot resonate with voters because of his proximity to the business community and the sitting president,” he said.
“South Africans are still preoccupied with the non-existent new dawn and, thus, President Cyril Ramaphosa erodes Motsepe’s chances.
“Therefore, if anything, Motsepe could win the ANC presidency but not that of South Africa. The voters are aware he will just maintain the status quo.”
Motsepe’s name has been raised by some ANC structures to stand for election as ANC president at the party’s national conference in 2027.
Some have printed PM27 T-shirts in preparation for Motsepe’s campaign to contest the party presidency.
Liberation movement credibility under strain
Political analyst Prof Ntsikelelo Breakfast said the ANC, like all liberation movements, is affected by large-scale institutional corruption.
This graft is characterised by accumulation, fraud, state bribery, racketeering and patronage practices such as favours and nepotism.
“This has angered the public towards the ANC,” said Breakfast. The contract has been terminated and the citizens have been let down.
“Brand ANC has been dealt a blow. It would really take years for the ANC to be resuscitated or bounce back to power. It would take a major shake-up of the party.
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“The ANC, or the brand, regardless of who is the leader – whether it’s Mbeki or Motsepe – will not get up off its knees,” Breakfast said.
He added that Motsepe, because of his good reputation and his status as a dignified man, should get out of the “rough game of politics” as he did not need any political position to survive.
There is a strong nexus between service delivery and poor voter turnout at elections, caused by ANC failures in government.
The romanticism of the past will not work any more.
“We appreciate that many of them laid down their lives for freedom, but young people want to move on with the times,” Breakfast said.
Candidates
If Motsepe agreed to stand for election as ANC president, the business tycoon would likely contest against current deputy president Paul Mashatile who, in the party’s tradition, should succeed Ramaphosa.
Some initially wanted party national chair Gwede Mantashe for the number one, but he declined as he is over 70.
Party deputy secretary-general Nomvula Mokonyane has indicated she would be available to contest for the ANC president post.
Candidates cited at various times intending to compete to be deputy president are secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, who is also said to be aiming to replace Ramaphosa, Gauteng premier Panyaza Lesufi and Eastern Cape premier Oscar Mabuyane.
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Patrice Motsepe
- Patrice Motsepe is a billionaire businessman and football administrator who has served as president of the Confederation of African Football since 2021.
- He is the founder and executive chair of African Rainbow Minerals, which has interests in gold, ferrous metals, base metals, and platinum.
- His sister, Dr Tshepo Motsepe, is married to President Cyril Ramaphosa.
