India’s absence from the controversial Will For Peace 2026 naval drills at Simon’s Town, off the Cape coast, in which China, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and South Africa participated, has brought into sharp focus the complex geopolitical and economic imperatives of each country.
Attention has focused on the optics of Iran’s participation in the drill, framed by Pretoria as a Brics Plus exercise at a tenuous time for US-South Africa relations, which are at an all-time low.
But the total absence of India from the exercise held between 9 and 16 January, where Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, and Ethiopia participated as observers, also had tongues wagging.
Notwithstanding the reasons, India’s absence from Simon’s Town underlines the geopolitical realities foreshadowing Indo-South African military cooperation.
New Delhi and Pretoria harbour a shared goal of being guardians of the Indian Ocean, a vital strategic and trade route, against piracy, terrorism, trafficking, and other threats.
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Their navies regularly collaborate through joint exercises, training, intelligence sharing, and capacity building, addressing threats like piracy and illegal fishing, leveraging India’s strong naval presence and South Africa’s regional focus, to ensure stability and freedom of navigation in the vital sea lanes.
However, this partnership is being challenged by each country’s differing levels of development and national priorities.
India has prioritised military modernisation and reduced dependence on foreign suppliers, such as Russia, France, and the United States, by leaning on domestic defence companies to bolster their capabilities.
Its priorities include building its third aircraft carrier, to be nuclear-powered, as part of a 15-year defence modernisation plan that provides for the use of Indian-made fighter jets by the navy for the first time.
Its defence ministry has also called for the addition of at least 10 nuclear propulsion systems to support the carrier and future warships.
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State-owned Hindustan Aeronautics is developing several new-generation twin-engine, deck-based fighters and light combat aircraft for the navy, while a deal worth almost $8 billion (about R129 billion) with France will see the addition of 26 Rafale-Marine twin and single-seat jets for deployment on its two carriers: INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya.
In addition, the Indian defence ministry’s 2025 road map foresees the procurement of two electromagnetic aircraft launch systems, developed for the US Navy to launch aircraft from carriers using electromagnetic forces instead of traditional steam catapults, while drones will play a key role in its defence system.
South Africa’s military capacity, on the other hand, has been weakened by drastic reductions in its defence budget, although its defence industry remains the most advanced in Africa, known for innovative, high-tech military solutions, producing everything from small arms to complex armoured vehicles, aircraft, and naval systems.
India is the world’s fourth-largest defence spender, after the US, China, and Russia, with a military budget of $77 billion for the current fiscal year.
In contrast, South Africa’s projected military budget for this year is about $3.2 billion – a drop in the ocean compared to India.
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The shortfall in military funding has crippled the South African Navy’s operational capacity, leaving it with minimal, often barely functional, assets to secure the nation’s 2 500km coastline.
The severe naval budget cuts have put a strain on South Africa’s maritime alliance with India, limiting Pretoria’s participation in joint strategic initiatives.
More critically, South Africa’s status as an equal peer-to-peer partner in the Indian Ocean alliance has been compromised by its inability to maintain optimal maritime capacity, despite having one of the strongest navies on the African continent.
As India continues to elevate the western Indian Ocean in its maritime strategy, South Africa’s “abandoned” sea borders leave a security vacuum that complicates its shared goal of maintaining a stable and secure Indian Ocean.
