There is speculation that a cold and wet winter lies ahead following the South African summer, which saw extreme storms, heavy downpours, hail, floods, and even tornadoes.
The Weather Hooligan, Juandre Vorster, predicts a colder winter due to the moisture accompanied by heavy snow.
He said that after a wet summer, winter was usually colder.
Wet summer and colder winter
“The moisture can freeze up in winter.
“It’s also not going to be a dry winter; there’s a possibility of rain this winter in Gauteng, so it’s going to be cold.”
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Vorster said he expects snow this year.
MyLondon reported that a recent study did find a correlation between colder winters and hotter summers, but this was specific to South Korea, according to research by Boksoon Myoung in 2021.
Vox Weather meteorologist Annette Botha said they haven’t been able to find a clear or consistent link between a very wet summer and a colder winter.
Too early to tell winter has in store
Botha said it was too early to tell what winter has in store for South Africa.
“It’s an easy connection to make, but the climate system is a bit more complicated than that,” she added.
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Botha said ocean temperatures, shifting pressure systems, and broader global patterns usually play a much bigger role as larger climate drivers.
“These can have a stronger influence on how winter turns out than what happened in the previous season.
“So even if summer was really wet, it doesn’t automatically mean winter will be bitterly cold. Each winter has its own personality,” she said.
La Niña conditions persisting through rest of summer
Botha said the latest El Niño/ Southern Oscillation indicators show La Niña conditions persisting through the rest of summer.
They are expected to weaken into neutral conditions during autumn, with the probability of El Niño increasing toward late winter and early spring.
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“December was not an isolated event.
“It reflects a broader climate pattern of wet, storm-prone conditions in the east and hot, dry, and fire-prone conditions in the west.
“The seasonal outlook suggests this contrast is likely to persist through late summer and early autumn,” she added.
Above-normal rainfall risks continue in east
Botha said for agriculture, this suggests above-normal rainfall risks continue in the east during late summer, more variable conditions into autumn, and a growing risk of warmer and drier conditions later in the year as El Niño develops.
“For farmers, this means that in the east and the lowveld, there is continued risk of flooding, crop disease, and soil erosion.
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“In the west, there will be ongoing pressure on water resources, fire management, and drought planning,” she added.
Botha said that while seasonal models cannot predict individual storms, they do provide reliable guidance on overall trends.
The trend for early 2026 is already clear with a wet east, a dry west, and significant agricultural challenges across both.
‘One corner of SA is washing away’
TLU chair SA Bennie van Zyl said: “One corner of the country is washing away, with a lot of damage to the farms and the infrastructure.
“And on the other side of the country, there has been one of the biggest droughts in the past 20 to 30 years, where there is no more drinking water for animals.”
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Van Zyl said besides the weather, farmers also faced man-controlled challenges, which include the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak.
“But the farmers remain positive. Farmers always work for the future,” he added.
