Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki warned Ethiopia against launching a war over seaport access on 20 July 2025.
Afwerki stated that Eritrea would resist any “human wave” military strategy by Ethiopia’s larger population. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, has renewed calls for sea access through Eritrean territory.
Eritrea and Ethiopia fought a deadly war from 1998 to 2000, which claimed tens of thousands of lives. Afwerki accused Abiy of attempting to divert attention from Ethiopia’s internal crises.
The president’s remarks follow Ethiopia’s revived seaport ambitions since early 2023.
TENSIONS RISE NEAR TIGRAY BORDER
Eritrean forces have remained present in parts of northern Ethiopia, including areas of Tigray, despite provisions in the 2022 Pretoria Agreement that required the withdrawal of all non-ENDF forces.
The Pretoria Agreement, signed on 2 November 2022, mandated the withdrawal of Eritrean and other non-federal forces from the Tigray region.
In March 2025, Ethiopia’s federal army engaged in intense clashes with the Fano militia in the Amhara region, resulting in over 300 reported militia deaths.
Gerrit Kurtz, senior researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), has stated that Eritrea benefits strategically from Ethiopia’s internal divisions.
Eritrean authorities have denied these allegations, labelling the reports of their military involvement as “fabricated” and politically motivated.
ERITREA’S STRATEGIC GAINS IN THE TIGRAY WAR
According to a June 2025 report by The Sentry, Eritrean forces looted factories, gold, and cultural artefacts from the Tigray region during the war.
The report documents how looted gold and antiques were smuggled into Eritrea and monetised through state-controlled networks.
Eritrean military officials used the proceeds to finance logistics and sustain war operations in Tigray.
The United Nations imposed an arms embargo on Eritrea in 2009 under Resolution 1907, which was lifted in November 2018 following the peace agreement with Ethiopia.
In 2019, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed received the Nobel Peace Prize for initiating the peace process with Eritrea; President Isaias Afwerki was not included as a laureate.
Despite the 2022 Pretoria Agreement mandating foreign troop withdrawal, credible reports say Eritrean forces remain in northern Ethiopia, sparking regional stability concerns.
CALLS FOR DIPLOMATIC DE-ESCALATION
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has publicly reiterated his support for peace, including fully implementing the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. However, he faces growing political pressure ahead of the 2026 national elections.
Analysts such as William Davison (International Crisis Group) and Gerrit Kurtz (SWP) warn that Abiy may exploit ongoing tensions to consolidate domestic political support.
Tigray’s interim president, Getachew Reda, has called for restraint and denied any provocation from his administration amid renewed cross-regional accusations.
Factions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) remain divided, hindering regional diplomacy and delaying full disarmament under the peace deal.
International bodies, including the African Union (AU), United Nations (UN), and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), continue to urge inclusive dialogue to prevent a relapse into conflict.
The Horn of Africa remains geopolitically volatile, as overlapping crises in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Somalia fuel regional instability.
WILL ERITREA AND ETHIOPIA AVOID ANOTHER WAR OVER RED SEA AMBITIONS?
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