Despite recent turbulence in global oil markets, a resilient rand is helping to moderate local fuel price fluctuations, paving the way for potential petrol price cuts in August.
According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), petrol prices in South Africa are currently showing signs of an over-recovery, indicating that pump prices could drop if current trends persist.
One of the key global developments influencing the market is the resurgence in oil prices following US President Donald Trump’s announcement that he would reinstate and expand his controversial “Liberation Day” tariff regime.
Tariffs coming
South Africa is among the countries facing these tariffs, with a 30% duty set to take effect from 1 August, after a three-week implementation delay designed to allow for further negotiation.
The announcement has added some pressure to global oil prices, pushing Brent crude from around $66 to just over $70 a barrel.
However, unlike previous instances of Trump’s unpredictable trade policy shifts, markets responded with less panic, thanks in part to the advance warning and measured rollout.
At home, the rand has held firm despite global uncertainty, helping South Africa buffer the impact of rising oil prices.
This has helped keep petrol price recoveries in check, while broader trends point toward an oversupply of oil globally, driven by a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East and renewed focus on OPEC+ production.
Below, the latest projections as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), effective Tuesday, 8 July.
| FUEL | PRICE CHANGE |
| Petrol 93 | decrease of 26 cents |
| Petrol 95 | decrease of 23 cents |
| Diesel 0.05% | increase of 58 cents |
| Diesel 0.005% | increase of 56 cents |
| Illuminating Paraffin | increase of 22 cents |
If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – a decrease of 26 cents is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and a decrease of 23 cents for 95 users.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 56 and 58 cents per litre increase.
Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 22 cents in price.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $70.44 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R17.84/$.
The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed early next month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 5 August 2025.
Go easy on the accelerator until then, Mzansi.
The current July 2025 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):
| INLAND | July |
| Petrol 93 | R21.79 |
| Petrol 95 | R21.87 |
| Diesel 0.05% | R19.35 |
| Diesel 0.005% | R19.41 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R13.16 |
| COASTAL | July |
| Petrol 93 | R21.00 |
| Petrol 95 | R21.04 |
| Diesel 0.05% | R18.52 |
| Diesel 0.005% | R18.65 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R12.14 |
How much do you spend on fuel per month on average?
Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1
Subscribe to The South African website’s newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
