A victory for the Springboks on Saturday would see them retain the Freedom Cup against the All Blacks, which they won last year for the first time since 2009, while a win would also see them stay in the race to defend their Rugby Championship title and reclaim the top spot on the world rankings.
World Rugby has now published the ranking permutations for matches in the Rugby Championship, and specifically here is what could impact the Springboks.
Permutation highlights for the Springboks
- South Africa will reclaim their status as the number one team in the world after a four-week hiatus if they beat New Zealand and retain the Freedom Cup.
- A draw will be enough for the Springboks to climb back above Ireland into second.
- If beaten, New Zealand will drop to second – or third if the margin is more than 15 points.
- Otherwise, a second win over the Springboks in as many weeks will increase the All Blacks’ advantage at the top of the rankings to at least 2.02 points.
Other rankings bullet points to note
- Australia cannot improve on sixth place as they will only gain a maximum of 0.67 rating points for a second win in as many weeks over Argentina, not enough to catch England.
- However, defeat will see Australia drop to seventh with Los Pumas replacing them in what will be band one for the Men’s Rugby World Cup 2027 draw in December.
- Argentina cannot fall from seventh this weekend, even with a loss by more than 15 points.
- Fiji, the highest-ranked team in the Asahi Super Dry Pacific Nations Cup 2025, cannot improve their rating in victory given the 21.34 point advantage over their semi-final opponents Canada.
- A win for Canada will result in a two-place rise to 22nd, lifting them above Belgium and Hong Kong China.
- Fiji will remain ninth if their title defence is ended by Canada.
- Meanwhile, 2024 runners-up Japan are unable to gain enough points to catch Wales in 12th even if they beat Tonga by more than 15 points in the other semi-final.
- Samoa can replace Japan in 13th if they win their fifth-place play-off with USA – which would secure qualification for Men’s Rugby World Cup 2027 – and the Brave Blossoms are beaten, providing that one of the winning margins is more than 15 points.
- Tonga need to beat Japan by more than 15 points to leapfrog Spain and move up to 15th. This would become 14th for the ‘Ikale Tahi if Samoa lose by the same margin to USA.
- USA will climb at least two places, above both Portugal and Uruguay, to 17th if they beat Samoa and secure qualification for RWC 2027.
- If Tonga also lose then the Men’s Eagles can gain another place with a win by more than 15 points.
What are your score predictions for the second round of the Rugby Championship?
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