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Too many matric passes, too few places? Manamela breaks down real education crisis

South Africa’s post-school education and training (PSET) system is under unprecedented pressure following record matric results. Despite this, the government insists the system is not in crisis, only under strain.

Higher Education and Training Minister Buti Manamela on Thursday said the country’s growing pool of successful matric pupils had exposed long-standing structural gaps between school success and post-school capacity.

“We meet at a very pivotal moment where South Africa has just recorded 650 000 successful matriculants,” Manamela said.

“This is an achievement and it must be acknowledged.”

He noted that over the past three years, the number of pupils passing matric had doubled annually, rising from about 150 000 to more than 350 000, and now to 650 000.

“Progress carries pressure,” he said.

Capacity gap laid bare

Manamela said the PSET system currently offers about 535 000 funded and planned spaces across universities, TVET colleges, community colleges, skills programmes and workplace-based learning.

“The gap between success and capacity is real. It is structural and long-standing,” he said, adding that the rapid growth in matric passes had created a “shock to the system”.

While 46.4% of candidates achieved a bachelor’s pass, Manamela warned that this often created unrealistic expectations.

“A bachelor’s pass does not guarantee admission to a university or to a specific programme,” he said.

He also questioned how matric results are communicated, saying categorising passes as “bachelor’s” can mislead pupils and parents.

“We are going to have a very friendly fight with basic education on this issue,” he said.

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STEM pipeline a major concern

Manamela identified science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) as a critical weakness in the system.

“Current trends are very concerning,” he said, citing growing enrolment in mathematical literacy instead of pure mathematics, weak performance in maths and accounting, and limited growth in physical sciences.

“This excludes learners from high-demand programmes not because of institutional failure, but because of subject-level preparation,” he said.

He said the departments of higher education, basic education and science and innovation were finalising plans to strengthen subject choice guidance and improve transitions into STEM programmes.

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TVETs ‘not residual options’

Manamela rejected the notion that universities should be the default pathway after matric.

“Our system was deliberately designed to be differentiated,” he said. “TVET and community colleges are not residual options. They are central pillars of the PSET system.”

He said the department would prioritise short courses, modular qualifications and occupational programmes, particularly at TVET colleges, to speed up entry into the labour market.

“This is the first year of a much bigger rollout of workplace-based learning, including apprenticeships, learnerships and internships,” he said.

Nsfas to fund one million students

Manamela said the National Student Financial Aid Scheme (Nsfas) would fund nearly one million students in 2026.

This includes 626 935 first-time applicants and 427 144 continuing university students who meet progression criteria.

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“On average, the state spends about R120 000 per student. This is a huge investment,” he said.

He welcomed the fact that about 74% of Nsfas-funded students passed, saying it countered claims that free funding was being wasted.

Crackdown on unregistered colleges

Manamela warned pupils and parents to be vigilant when registering at private colleges.

“Make sure the college is registered and accredited,” he said. “If they cannot show you a certificate, move away from that building and inform the department.”

He said the department would continue shutting down illegal institutions that reopen under new names or locations.

“Our system is under pressure, but it is not in crisis… Multiple pathways are not a compromise. They are a strength,” Manamela said.

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