Over the weekend, the headlines confirm recent forecasts:
- Trump moves nuclear subs after Medvedev’s threat (July 31)
- Ukraine strikes Russian energy infrastructure with drones (Aug 1–2)
On Friday, 1st August, I published a forecast before these escalations, predicting that August would be geopolitically frustrating and prone to costly missteps.
Frustration, stalled momentum, and the underestimation of resilience, logistics, terrain, or intent- these are the classic ingredients of escalation. And history show, when pressure builds, brinkmanship often follows.
Could August repeat those historical patterns? Yes, Absolutely
In Friday’s article, I highlight why this week and this month demand vigilance. August 2025 echoes moments from history’s most dangerous cycles of frustration and overreach:
- 1962 – The Cuban Missile Crisis
- 1951 – The Korean War escalation
- 1941 – WWII’s pivotal miscalculations: Pearl Harbour and Operation Barbarossa
Each was triggered by distrust, delay, and rising pressure.
So is today.
Trump deploys two nuclear submarines after provocative Russian comments. Published before events accelerate, why August may become the most geopolitically frustrating month in years.
August will be geopolitically frustrating. And history shows: frustration breeds missteps.
Here’s why the so-called “ceasefire” masks rising systemic risk, and what investors must prepare for now.
What’s your take on August’s rising risks and the shadow of history? Share your thoughts below!
Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1
Subscribe to The South African website’s newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
