On 2nd June, I published a note entitled “The Personal View: Acts of Violence – The World Is On Edge This Summer.”
In it, I warned:
“June and July 2025 will shape up to be two of the most geopolitically intense, heated, combustible months in recent memory… not defined by a single headline, but by a drumbeat of destabilising, violent, and politically consequential events.”
This warning is reiterated. All June and all July will see persistent and intense acts of violence, terror, war, and conflict.
A Wave of Global Unrest Unfolds
Since the warning was issued on 2nd June, we’ve witnessed:
– Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s Natanz nuclear site
– Iranian missile retaliation centred on Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Jerusalem
– Waves of rocket fire in Gaza and southern Lebanon
– A mass shooting in Graz, Austria
– Riots in Ballymena, Northern Ireland
– India–India-Pakistan tensions reignited with border clashes and terror threats
– A firebomb attack in Colorado
– Casualties in Kherson, Ukraine, from Russian drone strikes
– Rising tensions on the Kyrgyz–Tajik border
– The UN confirming 118+ attacks on schools, hospitals, and civilian infrastructure globally
Revisiting the Thucydides Trap
Back in mid-April, I published “The Personal View: The Thucydides Trap, War Cometh.”
I stated:
“A rising tide of systemic confrontation is unfolding… This is the Thucydidean Trap, when a rising power threatens an established one, and miscalculation often leads to escalation.”
In both notes, I flagged the geopolitical risk escalation and identified the market implications:
– Exposure to energy security risk and oil-sensitive names
– Tactical positioning away from travel, tourism, shipping, and logistics
These weren’t just warnings. They were calls to act. Markets are still mispricing the persistent asymmetric volatility ahead.
Forecasting Structural Volatility
Entering March 2025, my note, “The Personal View: How to Position Your Portfolio for the Market Turmoil Ahead (2025–2028),” explicitly forecasted a wave of market volatility tied to tariff wars, leadership failure, military escalation, oil shocks, and cyber threats, including the unfolding Iran conflict. This was not a reaction; it was anticipation. The note forecast persistent, structural volatility through 2028.
This same framework guided my early February 2020 short call ahead of the COVID crash, and my April 6, 2020, pivot to go long the S&P 500 with a multi-year target of $8,500, a call made amid panic, volatility, and disbelief.
The fuse has been lit. June and July 2025 will continue to see the world on fire..
Share your thoughts in the comments below. How are you preparing for this volatile period?
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