“Radical change, transformation, and upheaval” – in a note released on March 14, 2016, I forecasted that these characteristics would define the USA’s next 18 years. Nearly a decade later, the picture is clear.
The forecast was designed to inform investment choices, providing a framework for regional, asset class, sector, and security selection, to ensure decisions were both well-informed and highly effective in investment selection and duration.
Key Drivers of Change
I identified three key areas where change would be most visible and landscape-shaping:
- Technology Boom: Exponential, accelerating growth across all things technical.
- Debt Reckoning: An inevitable restructuring of finance, breaking the cycle of cheap money and debt-led consumption.
- Environmental Revolution: Sweeping policy changes, with water at the centre.
Political and Structural Shifts
I noted that the USA had entered a long-term pattern of radical change, transformation, innovation, and upheaval. It wasn’t just policy shifts; a structural overhaul was essential to heal its dependence on cheap money, debt-led consumption, and risky investment.
The political backdrop was already unconventional, and the Clinton vs. Trump race signalled that the USA had entered a non-traditional era of leadership choices, reflecting broader systemic shifts. Based solely on the characteristics of this forecast, with no personal preference or bias, The Personal View, in a separate note reiterated throughout 2016, forecast Donald Trump’s first presidential win.
Midway Reflection
The original note warned that while long-term results could be positive, the cycle would be marked by volatility and upheaval, especially as debt and risky investment remained “the nectar of the Gods”. I wrote that the USA might face significant brand damage and public discredit before structural reform and overhaul could take hold.
On the environmental side, I foresaw not just policy shifts but a revolution in attitudes toward managing natural resources, with water playing a pivotal role.
Almost 10 years on, how close was this to today’s reality? Looking ahead to 2033, will these trends continue?
Remember, for The Personal View, “expected” in the context of this forecast, was stated as being “disorderly, disruptive, fiery, unexpected, and transformative change that upends the status quo, sweeps away what has served historically, and installs deep structural change”.
In 2016, I closed the note with a challenge: “In 18 years, we will see to what extent this view is verifiable.” At the halfway point, that question remains open and is worth asking again today.
Do these trends reflect what you see unfolding in the USA? Share your perspective and join the conversation on the next 18 years of transformation.
Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1
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