Political analyst Professor Ntsikelelo Breakfast has warned that the firearm-related case against Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader Julius Malema could have a negative impact on the party’s electoral support.
Malema appeared in the East London Regional Court on Friday for pre-sentencing proceedings following his conviction for discharging a firearm during the EFF’s fifth anniversary celebrations at Sisa Dukashe Stadium in Mdantsane in 2018.
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He was found guilty of unlawful possession of a firearm and ammunition, discharging a firearm in a built-up area and reckless endangerment.
The EFF leader has indicated that he intends to challenge both his conviction and any sentence that may be imposed on him.
The matter has been postponed to 15 April 2026 for further proceedings.
Political implications
Speaking on the possible political implications, Professor Breakfast said Malema’s central role within the party means any imprisonment could significantly weaken the EFF.
“If he is being sent to prison, it will affect the electoral performance of the EFF because the personality of Julius Malema has been overbearing on the EFF,” Breakfast said.
He added that Malema’s leadership style and influence are deeply embedded in the party’s decision-making processes.
Image of the party
“Most of the decisions that are made in the EFF revolve around the personality of Julius Malema. I don’t see the EFF surviving without Julius Malema because he has been the image of the party, and on matters of leadership, I don’t think Julius Malema or the party has groomed another leader to take over from him,” he said.
The outcome of Malema’s case is being closely watched, not only for its legal consequences, but also for its potential impact on the future leadership and electoral fortunes of the EFF.
